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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season (MK8 Andrew/Tyler14 PythonGBGamer)
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was a departure from the above-average activity of the past three seasons. Only 8 storms formed in the basin proper, with 2 hurricanes including 1 major hurricane; however, Hurricane Mario of the Eastern Pacific crossed over into the Gulf of Mexico as a depression and was able to regain tropical storm status before landfall in Louisiana. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and ended on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. A record-breaking El Nino combined with an unusually stable atmosphere severely limited cyclogenesis throughout the basin. Only three storms of gale force or stronger (Barry, Dorian, Gabrielle) formed from tropical waves and no depressions formed east of 70°W while south of 20°N. The generally unfavorable conditions also led to the earliest finish to a season since 2006 when Humberto turned extratropical on October 13, and the lowest ACE value since 1983 with 24.9 units generated. Seasonal Forecasts The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a below-average season in 2019, with a total of 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season. On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, which mirrored TSR's original prediction. The next day, TSR released an updated forecast which lowered its numbers to 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, citing "signals" of "an unusually strong El Niño event". North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting significantly-below average activity with only 6–8 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes. On May 23, NOAA released their prediction, citing a 70% chance of a below average season due to "a significant El Niño", calling for 8–12 named storms, 4–6 hurricanes, and 1–2 major hurricanes. Video Summary Season Summary Systems Tropical Storm Andrea A cold front stalled off the East Coast near the South Carolina/Georgia border on June 13. Convection slowly started to wrap around the associated mid-level feature, and a surface low formed early on the 16th. Twelve hours later, the NHC determined that this low met criteria to be classified as Tropical Depression One. TD One slowly drifted to the northeast for the next two days while staying just offshore the North Carolina coast. On 11 AM EST on the 18th, having started a drift to the southeast, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Andrea. Andrea would slowly execute a clockwise loop, completing it at 5 PM EST June 19. Now moving a bit quicker than before to the northwest, Andrea made landfall on Surf City, North Carolina at peak intensity at approximately 11:30 AM EST June 20. The storm slowly weakened and became post-tropical over Virginia. The remnants headed east-northeast back out to the Atlantic and dissipated. Effects were mainly rainfall-based, with up to 18 inches of rain falling locally in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. Tropical Storm Barry A tropical wave located over the Eastern Caribbean Sea began to be monitored by the NHC on June 26th, initially giving the disturbance a 30% chance to form into a depression before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula in five days. Four days later the five-day forecast had increased to 80% with a two day forecast of 40% despite its proximity to land, as the NHC cited "unusually conducive" Bay of Campeche waters. By this time, the wave had formed a broad low-level circulation, which appeared to get more organized as it crossed the Yucatan. On July 1, the disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression Two having just entered the Gulf. At 4 PM CDT the next day the depression was upgraded to the second tropical storm of the season. Barry would intensify at a relatively quick pace before landfall near the Texas/Mexico border thirteen hours later. Tropical Storm Chantal A low-pressure system at the end of a slow-moving frontal boundary detached in the Gulf of Mexico on July 14 and began to drift westward. At this time, computer models had a wide spread of potential tracks for the system, with the GFS and EURO favoring a weak, westward track towards Corpus Christi, TX; the UKMET suggesting a moderate tropical storm with a more northwestward motion into the Texas/Louisiana border, and the NAVGEM featuring a Category 3 into the Florida Panhandle. The system organised and was upgraded to a tropical storm late on the 16th while slowly moving northwest with Tropical Storm Watches posted from the Texas/Mexico border to New Orleans, as there was still significant dissension in the models. Chantal would end up taking a path similar to the UKMET solution, making landfall west of Port Arthur, TX at peak intensity. 10:30 AM CDT Tropical Depression Four A tropical wave located between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde islands began to show signs of organization on July 25, but stable air kept it in check. Two days later, the NHC predicted a more conducive atmosphere once past the islands, giving the wave a 50% chance of development in five days. On July 30th, while approaching the Lesser Antilles, the NHC's two-day probability was only at 40%, citing "increase in wind shear" over the Eastern Caribbean. The shear would abate somewhat, however, and three days later a depression formed. The initial advisory called for a moderate tropical storm in the Gulf turning towards Louisiana in five days, but shear would pick up in the depression's path, keeping it disorganized. The cyclone passed over Jamaica and the tip of the Yucatan at peak intensity, dissipating right after crossing into the Gulf. Hurricane Dorian On August 12, a vigorous tropical wave located around 47°W began to develop a low-level circulation. Convection would wax and wane over the next three days as the disturbance crossed the Lesser Antilles, becoming more established once crossing 65°W into a wetter airmass early on August 17th. At 8AM EDT the NHC gave the circulation only a 50% chance of development within the next 48 hours, which was restated at 2 PM; however, Hurricane Hunters three hours later found the LLC to be much closer to closing off than estimated, with surface-level winds estimated at 35 to 40 knots. Another flight six hours later confirmed west winds, and advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian commenced. The initial advisory package forecasted Dorian to impact Nicaragua as an 80 mph hurricane due to its southwest motion, but Dorian suddenly turned toward the northwest late on the 18th, prompting Hurricane Watches to shift northward to Honduras, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Dorian became the first Atlantic storm to reach hurricane strength on August 19 at 11 PM EDT while just north of Honduras and began a round of rapid intensification. In thirty hours, the hurricane's winds increased from 80 mph to 150 mph, with the pressure falling from 982 mb to 946 mb. During this time, Dorian took on a more westerly motion, which resulted in landfall on Belize at peak intensity around 5:15 AM EDT August 21. From its landfall point, Dorian continued westward into Mexico, weakening to a tropical storm about eighteen hours later. Dorian would further degenerate into a depression on August 22 at 10 AM CDT with half the circulation back over water. Complete dissipation occurred the next day right before the remnants came completely ashore mainland Mexico. Due to the extensive destruction caused in Belize and eastern Mexico, with estimated damages totaling $2 billion, the name Dorian was replaced with Drew in the spring of 2020. Tropical Storm Mario A disturbance located south of Guatemala quickly organized into a tropical storm on 10 PM August 24th, becoming the fifteenth overall of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season. Mario would reach hurricane strength 24 hours later while heading north and make landfall on Mexico with 90 mph winds, its peak intensity, the evening of August 26th. The landfall was the second-easternmost for an Eastern Pacific hurricane, occurring just west of Hurricane Barbara of 2013. Unlike Barbara, however, Mario would survive its crossover into the Gulf of Mexico, with Atlantic advisories beginning at 10PM CDT August 27th. This was the first Eastern Pacific- Atlantic crossover since 2010. After emerging in the Gulf, Mario continued generally north, with computer models agreeing on a landfall on central Louisiana. Due to moderate wind shear and sinking air, the storm would only be able to strengthen to 50 mph before landfall on Louisiana with 45 mph winds on August 31. Tropical Storm Erin An erratic extratropical low associated with a front began to develop warm-core characteristics on August 29, becoming detached from the front the next day. Convection steadily built, and the NHC declared the system tropical on September 2, well to the southeast of Newfoundland. Erin would continue to wobble and drift in a generally westward manner, dip south, then turn back north and northeast before turning extratropical again on the 6th. In its post-tropical stage, Erin continued northeast before stalling late September 7 and slowly drifting south for two days before being absorbed by a larger low. Hurricane Fernand The precursor to Fernand was yet another stalled frontal-associated low which detached about 200 miles south of New Orleans on September 11. The low gradually gained structure as it drifted slowly north, moving just quickly enough to avoid upwelling. The NHC began issuing advisories at 4 PM CDT September 14. At the time, some of the models indicated that Fernand may not reach shore by the time another front moves through, which prompted a Tropical Storm Watch from the Florida Panhandle to Tampa, as well as the Warnings westward to Louisiana. Fernand kept on a slow crawl north, about 2 mph, until landfall, surprisingly gaining intensity in the shallow coast waters. Fernand became the second hurricane of the season early September 16 while the radius of maximum winds began to cross over Mississippi, with an official landfall six hours later after the winds had further increased to 80 mph. Late September 16, the forecasted front began sweeping the weakening cyclone northeastward, causing it to lose tropical characteristics soon after. As an extratropical storm, Fernand moved east over Georgia and the South/North Carolina border, bringing heavy rains and wind gusts up to 60 mph to Atlanta and Rock Hill, SC. After exiting via the Outer Banks, the system gained a more northerly component on the 22nd, appearing to bend towards a landfall on Maine. Beginning early on the 23rd, though, Fernand executed a counter-clockwise loop off the coast of New England while bringing up to 6 inches of rain and 50 mph gusts to Boston. After the loop, the system affected Nova Scotia, dumping in excess of 15 inches of precipitation. Tropical Storm Gabrielle Tropical Storm Humberto Storm Names The following list of names were used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2019. This is the same list used in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid. Retirement Season Effects Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:El Nino years Category:2019 Atlantic hurricane season